This scenario isn't going to play out, the Russians aren't stupid. They don't want the Russian bear to be the new rug in the Oval Office. While the right portrays Obama as a feckless idiot, he has in fact used strategic force to great effect throughout his Presidency. The Russians aren't big followers of Fox News, they aren't kidding themselves about what Obama is willing to do.
Knowing that he can't win an actual confrontation, Putin is showing the Flag and hoping for concessions, specifically he desperately wants to hang onto his warm water ports. He'll get that from Obama, and the Ukraine will become an independent democracy on track to join the EU. Putin will be posing shirtless by a week from Tuesday. Obama will still be the butt of Right Wing traitors's jokes despite his latest victory.