Thursday, August 8, 2013

What are Obama & Putin really tense about?

New unemployment claims were up slightly with today's release of numbers, but the moving average continues to fall, this indicates jobs are still being created. The problem is that these new jobs don't pay much. The bulk of jobs created since the Bush crash pay less than $14/hour. That's been pretty much the norm for second tier union jobs for many years, and the higher paid first tier workers are retiring. Non-union jobs get less of course, and increasingly employers are locking out union workers to push for even lower wages for the second tier.

That banking collapse we've been anticipating maybe precipitated by a USD collapse that may not be far off. Russia and China are making more noises about replacing the US dollar dominated Bretton Woods Agreement from 1944. The new international standard would be one based on a gold backed Yuan along with a basket of currencies that are also tied to gold. This was the basis of Bretton Woods until Nixon took the USD off gold to avoid a run on US reserves precipitated by an uncontrolled trade deficit.

You could argue that China would run into the same problem with gold, but China has strong government policies much as the US did in 1944. It was Republicans knocking holes in the New Deal for their own profit that allowed Nixon to take us off the gold standard. This led to even more problems which brought us Ronald Reagan, and the subsequent disaster we are living in today. China doesn't have this problem, their equivalent of Republicans don't exist, they shoot traitors.

China has already signed agreements with a number of large trading partners to use the Yuan without the USD as an intermediate currency. These include Australia, Britain, Brazil, Germany and Russia. Putin would really like to have a Ruble that's actually worth something, and not be dependent on the USD or the Euro. You have to think this is of some concern to Obama. The phony scandal over Snowden can't be what the kerfuffle is really about.

At some point the US dollar could start to be dumped by countries holding it as a reserve currency. Things could get real ugly, really fast, or maybe not. It could be an opportunity for real reform in the US..... excuse me, I was having a 'moment'.

The gold bugs are pushing this 'gold yuan' & possible dollar collapse as a reason to buy more of their gold. It's not likely to work out for anybody to do that. If gold really becomes the backer of international trade then the private ownership of gold will probably end as it did under FDR. Libertarians who think that President Paul will start issuing gold coins are seriously kidding themselves, but what's new about that?

Either there will be a Progressive 'revolt' as we had early in the last century, or the billionaires will consolidate power. The Libertarians who define themselves as rugged individualists, and by definition can't work together, will just continue to grumble while they turn in their gold. They'll take less than they paid for it on the fading hope of being able to buy food.

Elysium looks like a fun summer flick. It has a premise right out an Ayn Rand novel where the rich people all leave for a giant space station while the Earth becomes a planet wide slum. The Conservatives and Libertarians are freaked out about portraying that concept in real terms, they thought it was their little secret.

Twitter @BruceEnberg   Hey Libertarians, I'll trade you canned goods for gold, a pound of food for a pound gold.


Anonymous said...

Right On!! Insightful as usual.

Anonymous said...

Lot's of talk about gold and "libertarians ". One question, if the gov. decided to confiscate private gold holdings would you support it?