Thursday, October 25, 2012

Numbers

Initial unemployment claims are back down this week after last week's spike.

Housing starts and home sales are up significantly despite continued tight credit. Prices are up in most markets.

Obama's poll numbers are up in the battle ground states, including a 5 point lead in Virginia. Early voting states show Democratic turnout way up over 2008 and down for Republicans.

The number of young people who will vote is still the wild card. They are notoriously hard to poll with no land line and often not even living in traditional households. Polling models are based on past election results. Shifting demographics and the building economic crisis among the Millennium Generation could make the polls simply wrong. They out number the Baby Boomers, but millions of women in this group didn't vote last time. Will the Republicans coming out in favor of 'rape pregnancy' motivate this group to vote? If just the women who were old enough to vote four years ago were to turnout this time, the election might not even be close. 


3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Expect Romney to blowout Obama. .. can't take 4 more years of economic nonsense. U-6 at 14.7% ... $16 trillion in debt. .. adding $1 trillion per year. ... Obama is out of ideas. Not that his economic ideas make any sense at all. But, wouldn't expect a community organizer to know much anyway... If after 4 years of Romney things aren't better he will be fired, too. .. 4 years and out until we get someone good.

prairie2 said...

"Expect Romney to blowout Obama", the only reason this one gets by is the comment at the end reassuring us that "... he [Romney] will be fired, too..."

Right, the trolls are suddenly going to vote for somebody 'better' if a Republican fails in office, they've never done that before. They didn't care about the u-6 before, the last budget of Bush was 1.8 trillion in the hole, that wasn't a problem for them. The debt should have been zero at the end of Gore's second term, instead of 12 trillion at the end of Bush, no admitting that they voted wrong. They just want the same again.

Dave said...

Surely you've heard the expression "Fool me once, shame on you! Fool me twice, shame on me!" I'd like to continue that as, "Fool me 25 or 50 times, I must be some sort of lunk-head!"

This is the problem that ultra-right voters have. It's becoming obvious that so-called conservative politicians have been playing those "values-voters" for patsies for decades.

It must be incredibly difficult to deal with realizing one's been such fool for so long. Rather than take that hard path, it's easier to double-down on delusion and vote for the liars again. I believe this is why Romney as much support as he has.