Wednesday, March 28, 2012

The outcome can't be guaranteed

Some estimates are now available on the practical consideration of Israel’s aspirations of them attacking Iran’s newest uranium enrichment facility. To penetrate to the reported depth of this installation through 300 feet of solid rock, the largest weapon Israel is reported to have is a 5000 lb bunker buster, and it would take a minimum of six direct hits. That is, hitting the bottom of the original hole, if the first one is on target.

Only Israel’s F-15s are capable of carrying a bomb this size, and it would be overloaded in the sense of becoming an easy target for any defense Iran puts up. To make that many direct hits would require a minimum of 75 attempts. Israel has only 85 F-15s in all configurations, some of which are set up as interceptors, and probably can’t carry such large bombs for the distance required. Plus they would need in flight refueling from a very limited fleet of aging air tankers.

The biggest problem that Israel has in this adventure is the Syrian/Russian air defense system that is fully capable of detecting one F-15 let alone a 400 plane strike force of all types of aircraft, that would be required to take on all of Iran‘s installations at once. Iran won’t be caught off guard and will mount its own formable defense. Israel would likely lose a significant portion of its air force in the attempt and still not achieve its goal.

The USAF, who is capable of delivering much larger bombs, says it would be a fool’s errand to attempt such an attack even for the US. So any fantasy talk of Israel attacking Iran is strictly for political ends, it benefits the right in Israel, and it benefits the rightwing here as it helps drive up oil prices.

This strategy requires that the price of oil doesn’t collapse before the election. With demand already depressed by past high prices that led to a move toward more efficient use of oil products, and combined with lowered consumption from the still depressed economy, the price bubble could burst anytime.

The corporate media keeps repeating the talking point that Obama’s release of oil from the strategic reserve last year didn’t have much effect, nor for very long. The actual numbers have of course a liberal bias, it was universally accepted that gas would be $6/gallon by Labor Day and this didn’t happen. While gas is approaching the peak of last year’s prices, the supply on hand is even greater. In short it’s a bubble in the B******t, the price will collapse if Obama does nothing, but any action on his part will trigger the price collapse. The longer he waits, the more dramatic the result.

But, with Obama’s current lead over Romney in the states that matter for the Electoral College, he could start spending all his time at the ranch in Crawford. Oh wait, Obama actually takes his job seriously, so he won’t. Too bad this work ethic doesn’t guarantee a good outcome for the nation. Things are that bad.


Anonymous said...

Good valid points up to the last paragraph. The Mighty ONE will just go GOLFING.

prairie2 said...

Look up the comparison of Presidential vacation times. Only Clinton was more of a workaholic.