Friday, January 28, 2011

Is your tail fat?

Is your tail fat?  “Fat tail” is insider market term that comes originally from mathematical modeling. It refers to an anomalous event that skews the data and produces a funny looking chart. In the market it’s one of those very real possibilities that are completely ignored until they happen. Like the complete break down of multiple governments in places that have oil and such.

Tunisia wasn’t a big deal in the scheme of the world and it’s probably not what is really driving the popular revolt in Egypt and other countries in the Mideast. What all these countries have in common is grinding poverty among more than half the population who live on less than $2 a day. This translates into not being able to afford food when the price doubles or triples.

So called developing countries are scrambling to secure basic food stuffs and are announcing new programs to distribute food and cooking oil in order to avoid being the next domino to fall.

The so called developed world is not exempt from the “fat tail”. The NYSE dropped hard today and commodities were up sharply. Oil in the European markets is already closing in on $100, that’s $12 above West Texas crude today. Gold jumped $25 as investors are anticipate a surge to safe investments.

This will all translate into higher food and fuel prices that were already being pressured by market speculators. And really that’s all that is going on here is speculation and market manipulation by unscrupulous Wall Street parasites. They sucked three trillion out of the pension funds during the last crisis and they’re back for more.

People will die, governments will fall and millions will suffer to transfer more of the world’s wealth to a handful of useless capitalists in the name of “free markets”.  In case you haven’t guessed there is nothing free about the markets, they cost us dearly. If you happen to live on $2 a day in 3rd world country and food costs $3 you could die. If you’re a 99’r in the US and are living on food stamps and nothing else then you’re not much better off here as the price of food surges.

If the Republicans are successful in cutting off all government spending and end food stamps, well you get the idea. But the real danger is that they will manage to cripple the economy to the point where it simply collapses and food stamps aren‘t even available. I’m not kidding about the canned goods.


Ronmac said...

The events in Egypt bring me back to another January (in 1979) when the Iranians took to the streets to chase out the Shah.

Anonymous said...

Perhaps this is simply a restatement, but I see the basic problem as the success of the useless capitalists in convincing poor countries to give up their systems of domestic subsistence farming to grow "cash" crops to "feed" the global commodity markets the same capitalists control.

Those countries/farmers/people may thus get money but
1) as we see, it may not be enough to purchase the ever-more-expensive minimum daily biological caloric requirements and
2) in playing the capitalists game, the countries have divested themselves of the ability to feed themselves with traditionally sufficient crops.

John Puma

Dave M said...

The worst part of all this is the social chaos we are courting. It won't matter as much who has the canned goods as who can steal or defend them. And we bring this about to feed the overfed who don't know the meaning of the word "enough"? Really?

Maggie H said...

Wow wanna start a revolution? Wanna start it? Like Malloy says we can start it if we just stand down. Wanna start it I do Last week 30 of my nuses called in sick on Saturday night. Freaking out. We can take them down We can do it.
We can take them down. We absolutely can do this. Without us this thing wil stop. We are so ready the nurses of So Cal. You had better listen to us. We can take youre health care thing down.

Anonymous said...

With the current unemployment situation, it is not a good idea for Nurse Maggie H and her co-workers to call in sick in mass for very long. ... plenty of people are willing to take your spots.

prairie2 said...

Hear that Nurse Maggie? Our resident right wing troll says there are lots of people ready to take your job. They just don't get it, they can only block the bridge until the really big Billy Goat arrives. (it's a metaphor for building strength, right wingers don't get it)