Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Early in the Obama Adm. they let it be know that they would bypass the corrupt Bush puppet in Kabul and starting funding cooperative local governments. These range from nearly democratic tribal councils to outright warlords. Of course peace with a warlord is still peace. This strategy went out the window with the take over of the Swat valley in Pakistan by religious zealots affiliated with Al-qaeda. This emboldened the Al-qaeda groups who appeared poised to sweep over Pakistan when they attacked and overwhelmed local militias in neighboring provinces. These militias had been newly armed by the Obama Adm. This made it appear that they would not only takeover Pakistan with its nuclear weapons but would then control the supply line to Afghanistan and be able to capture that country as well.

The success of the zealots and videos of their barbaric treatment civilians especially young women was sufficient to galvanize public opinion in the rest of Pakistan. While willing to let the tribal areas keep to themselves, the threats they made to take over the entire country didn’t set well with the majority that doesn’t want to return to the twelfth century. The Pakistani Army then had the public support to sweep in, giving them control of large areas, probably for the first time ever.

This makes the original plan in Afghanistan viable again. Obama’s people are letting it be know that they will probably cut the number of troops and pull back from McChrystal’s plan to occupy the entire country and instead concentrate on Al-qaeda and not pursuing the Taliban.

In reality the majority of Taliban forces are just local militias pressed to support Alqaeda. This was made possible by Bush’s handling of Afghanistan because he wanted an endless war there. He provided financial support for elements of Al-qaeda who were supposedly attacking Iran. Bush also hired contractors to convoy supplies through the Khaiber Pass and that allowed more weapons and material to go to Al-Qaeda in Pakistan than made it to Kabul. No better way to have endless war than to supply both sides.

When the Obama people say they will concentrate on Al-Qaeda what they really mean that they will support militarily local leaders that are cooperative and let them get rid of Al-Qaeda. The locals don’t want the foreign Al-Qaeda zealots or the mayor of Kabul running things. Obama has also cut off the supply of weapons by securing a supply line through Russia. Done properly this is a plan that can work. "Done properly" is the problem, this means getting rid of people like Gen. McKrazy. There are rumors that is was the White House that leaked the story about Mckrazy threatening to resign if he didn’t get more cannon fodder as a way to get rid of him.

This plan doesn’t require the US to occupy Afghanistan or assimilate its people and it could produce an adequate level of peace long enough for Obama to simply declare victory and leave.