Saturday, September 26, 2009

The announcement of Iran’s secret nuclear plant appears fully scripted, even Iran’s part in the drama. Really severe sanctions would not be in the interest of Russia or China and there is really nothing that Obama could offer them to get them to go along. So when Obama, Britain’s PM and France’s President all step up and make that kind of threats against Iran like they did in public, they must know exactly what will happen. Unlike Bush, who only cared about the swagger of the moment and didn’t care how stupid he looked the next day. You can bet that Iran has already agreed to the outcome and Russia and China have blessed the deal.

The right-wing web sites are claiming Obama was caught by surprise but this runs counter to reports that the US has known about this reactor for some time. This would be consistent with rumors of a reactor that Israel intended to attack a year ago. The bombing campaign went out the window with Russia’s invasion of Georgia. The Russian’s behavior seemed a bit odd with their troops wandering about and blowing things up before they left. It seems that what they were taking care to destroy was Israeli Air Force equipment that had be pre-positioned for an extended air campaign against Iran. Tehran is just a quick hop from old Soviet air bases in southern Georgia with a hundred F-15s.

Bush had amassed a four carrier fleet to back up Israel but the Russians wouldn’t go along. Sarah Palin could see the Russian bombers from her porch. It’s not clear just how close Chuckle-nutz brought us to WWIII. The Israelis fell all over themselves to make nice with the Russians immediately afterwards, they seemed to have had some idea they had stepped in it. You shouldn’t mess with the Bear just because some pretend cowboy says he looked into his soul. Bush’s October surprise fizzled and the sun rising didn’t silhouette Dick Cheney’s mushroom cloud after all.

Obama seems to have things under control so far. It’s nice to have a Commander in Chief who isn’t an idiot. Maybe we can.


Ronmac said...

I have a throry. Was the Russia/Gerogia war a setup? Recall last year Israel was chomping at the bits to attack Iran. GWB was refusing the Israelis to pass over Iraqi air space. In fact, GWB didn't want Israel to attack Iran period.

The Israels then went to plan b and used Georgia as a base. But then for some inexplicable reason Gerogia staged an attack on Russia for no reason. Which then obliged the Russians to go in and destroy the Israeli facilities.

Was it GWB and company who orchestraed this whole affair? A roundabout way of preventing an attack on Iran. Sure there was lots of tough talk but this was only posturing.

prairie2 said...

Bush had a battalion of troops right from Iraq in Georgia that summer "for training". The Russians showed off the captured equipment. Supposedly all the US troops had already left. Did that open the door for Russia to come in? or did they bug out without their equipment under threat from Russian tanks? Bush wanted to send in the Fleet but there is a treaty with Turkey and others that prohibits that. The Russians like chess, Bush couldn't handle checkers.

Ronmac said...

It doesn't explain why the Georgians would attack the Russians. Or did somebody get carried away with the vodka and things got out of hand?

The endgame is the Israelis were deprived of their base to launch a surprize attack on Iran and the list of "suspects" who were happy about that is about a mile long. And didn't the Georgians get a big payoff soon afterwards.

Maybe GWB and company planned this whole thing. They staved off an attack on Iran which was prioirtiy one and as a bonus got to flex their muscle which provided plenty of fodder for the campaign trail.

I was personally moved by the sight of old cold war warriors coming to life again after years of slumber. people who had come of age during the "red scare" and who were perhaps feeling that El Queada, as a threat to western civilization to get their blood boiling, just was was cutting it any more.

It brought tears of nostalgia to my eyes.

prairie2 said...

Georgia didn't attack Russia directly. They would go snipe across the border with the seperatists every August. The Georgians clearly expected to be backed up by the US. Maybe the Russians renegged on a deal or maybe the Bushies underestimated them. The Russians were building their own coalition and making the US look bad. The people the Georgians were massacring happened to be ethnic Iranians. Pawns and knights and Russian tanks - Bush wearing a codpiece and Sarah Palin's Armegeddon - may you live in interesting times goes the curse from China.

Pandabonium said...

Correction - "the US has known about this reactor" - it is not a reactor, but a new facility for enriching uranium. And it isn't even in operation yet.

Otherwise, good post.

I don't think Iran is going to be attacked militarily. Too many countries, including alies of the USA, need the oil and/or natural gas form Iran and reciprocal sales of goods back (UK, China, Japan, India, Malaysia, South Korea, et al). Not to mention the European need for Iran natural gas through the Nabucco pipeline as a competitor to Russia.

The present tension does take the world's eyes off the Israeli treatment of Palestinians and the failures of the US in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Fake_William_Shatner said...

It troubles me that Obama is doing the same old song and dance of Diplomacy... you know, lying.

The false pretense of "just finding" something that is a nuclear threat -- are we so jaded? The only thing on our radar is an extinction level event, and to pretend that something is when it isn't, is just business as usual?

Iran is not and never has been a threat -- we all know that, but it's reasonable to act like it is, because that moves things forward.

If this isn't a preamble to an invasion -- it's almost more cynical.

I'm just disappointed that Obama is smoothly not saying what is true, and he expects me to believe him when he is really, really serious. I knew that Obama wasn't a progressive or even a liberal but somehow I was expecting more.

If we start something with Iran -- then perhaps I was remiss in voting in the last election, and I should have sold my home and moved to some other country where our meager savings would be a treasure and hold out until this empire collapse thing had settled into it's own footprint, and the thermate heated steel had cooled.

>> I like how you connect the dots with the new-found warming with Russia and us getting rid of a boondoggle missile defense shield.

The only question I have with this theory is; Do we KNOW if Russia would not trade on the security of Iran? It seems to me, that all our allies knew that our claims about Iran and Afghanistan were bogus, and they made feeble public claims of "shame on you" without any teeth.

I think we've established that there is no honor amongst countries -- but I didn't know that Russia would be joining the US in the civilized and restrained practice of eating up nations that cannot defend themselves.

Either Iran is in the clear and will claim to be responsible for the Lockerbie airplane disaster (did Libya already make that bogus claim?) and quietly end their nuclear dreams, or we are marching towards a bogus war and Russia gave us approval. That would mean we have another stock market/Pentagon budget catastrophe to distract from.

The only thing I know for sure is that Obama uses the same voice for truth as he does fiction.

Fake_William_Shatner said...

Wow, some astute comments here from Ronmac;
"Maybe GWB and company planned this whole thing. They staved off an attack on Iran which was prioirtiy one and as a bonus got to flex their muscle which provided plenty of fodder for the campaign trail."

It doesn't always come into our calculations that Bush or the Neocons can be strategic -- but that's because they are SO CYNICAL, that they don't care what the Peons think of them. They make off with the bank and leave us the bill and it's huge joke to them. So Bush probably loves that we think he is an idiot, because the joke is on us. The guy cannot speak clearly, because of years of drugs -- but he is NOT an idiot.

The Bush family has always been Saudi aligned, and it seemed strange to me, that after 9/11 they suddenly were Israeli-firsters. I suspect while Rove and the NSA were getting dirt on political rivals -- maybe the Mossad was getting dirt on them. This seems to be how the mob, the CIA, fundamentalists and all governments are working today; they only promote people they can ruin for past crimes.

So Bush is over a barrel -- let's just say he is corrupt, and that foreign governments know it and can pull his strings. He can't move against the Svengali directly, but he can do a boneheaded appearing move and get us kicked/Israel kicked out.

It appears that a LOT of stupid moves have been made that ruin invasion plans -- which I'm somewhat comforted by.

I think Obama is in the same situation. Like he has no control, and someone is looking over his shoulder with a shovel and a bag of lime.

Maybe his healthcare plan just LOOKS like a big wet kiss to Health Insurance, and it puts the camels nose under the tent, so that after his new program is in place, he can actually fix the real problems by tweaking a few things.

Maybe we cannot have overt peace with Iran -- because we have too many politicians who are compromised, but we can be FORCED to have peace with Iran. So we make a bonehead move, and are forced to do what we secretly wanted to do -- sounds like Real-politic to me.

>> I rushed this comment -- so I hope the convoluted thinking here isn't too confusing.

prairie2 said...

I'm not ready to fault Obama on this. Israel could trigger a war and he seems to be heading them off. We'll see what happens in the meetings with Iran. Then again, Obama could be a secret Republican.

John said...

It seems that only Russia is dealing with the Iran "issue" appropriately.

Obama may have things under control and he is clearly NOT an idiot but I'm afraid he is still projecting the tired and dangerous neocon air of confrontation with Iran.

The meticulously timed "outing" of a the horrific new Iranian uranium processing plant is all theater - cynical, counter-productive, mendacious theater.

Iran built a new plant and reported it to the IAEA within the period required by the NPT (Nuclear non-proliferation treaty) under which it has the right to such plants. Period. End of story.