Tuesday, March 31, 2009

The New World Economy; feeling sticky?

A new poll out today shows Americans are more confident that the country is going in the right direction; now at 45% up from 8% in October and Obama continues to carry 64% of Americans having confidence in his economic plan. Meanwhile housing prices continue down sharply only outstripped only by the plunge in commercial real-estate value. Deflation is alive and well.

The Obama Adm. is talking about some sort of Bankruptcy for GM if an acceptable restructuring plan can’t be presented in sixty days. Sounds like a ridiculously short time frame; but there is really only one major issue to resolve and that could be done in a few days; that is the bond holders. The Right says this is grandma’s pension but really it’s mostly hedge funds and oil sheiks that are being told to take pennies on the dollar or get nothing at all. GM’s new CEO is talking today about Bankruptcy being more probable. It has now become a trillion dollar game of chicken, with the Sheriff trying to convince the townspeople to give concessions or he will pull the trigger on the gun not just to his own head but to all our collective heads.

Obama is off to Europe to participate in the Kabuki Theater with world leaders; the French Prime Minister is threatening to walk out if he doesn’t get new financial regulations (the same regulations that Treasury Sec. Geithner has already announced). The Russians have been pushing hard for the past week to prepackage some sort of diplomatic coup that they can announce after their private meeting with Obama. China will hold the most important meeting with our President; but the way the Chinese do these things we probably won’t hear about what happened for some time.

The London meetings may be largely pointless but they will define the turning point of the new world economy by what announcements they use the occasion of the big horse show to trot out. Some will be put out to stud and some will get a new career in the glue industry. Feeling sticky?